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Prediction for CME (2024-08-10T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-10T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32682/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the north in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the NE of STEREO A COR2. The source is unclear, but may be one of a couple faint candidate source eruptions on the disk, best seen in GOES SUVI 284. The first starts around 2024-08-10T02:42Z with dimming near N15W30 starting. There may also be eruptive activity from Active Regions 3781 or 3783 in the NE, seen starting around 2024-08-10T02:34Z. No CME arrival signature in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-13T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32686/1
Model Inputs:
2024-08-10T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=35.0, Speed=787.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2024-08-10T06:54Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-13T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-12T06:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-13T03:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240810_065400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 55.02 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-08-10T20:59Z

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